Will EVs Sink the Electric Grid

Published Sunday January 22, 2017: Updated 3/25/2018

Will EVs Sink the Electric Grid?
What happens when every vehicle on the road is replace with an electric one, how will the power grid handle all this uptick in load? 
It gets worse when an EV charges up rapidly because they are drawing a lot more power from the grid. My Chevy Bolt draws about 46 kW when plugged in at a rapid charging station.
My Bolt charging up at the Cedar City, UT Maverik charging station. 
A Tesla 50-Stall Supercharger station. 

A Tesla Model S or X draws up to 145 kW of power when rapid charging. It does this for about 15 to 45 minutes depending on battery size and depth of discharge. 
A 150 kW to 350 kW charging station in Baker, CA soon to be open. 
In the future when cars are able to charge up in only 5 minutes, a 1 million watt power draw (per vehicle) would be required. If every electric vehicle were to all charging up simultaneously on ultra-fast chargers like these, it would quickly overwhelm the electric grid.

This would spell disaster except most of the time, electric vehicles are conveniently charged up slowly over night. 

Currently at night, the electric demand on the power grid goes way down and the power plants have to throttle back 60-75% of their generating capability just to keep the grid from having too much voltage on the lines. 

When a fossil fueled generator like a coal plant or gas turbine throttles back, they become less energy efficient and actually pollute more, (per kWh of energy). They also generate less revenue and become less profitable because they are selling less energy but still incurring wear and tear. Having lots of electric vehicles drawing a constant, predictable, steady state power draw from the grid for hours at a time over night would be a welcome boon to all the existing idling power plants. 
Charging slowly at home takes less time than pumping gas: 
Charging at home costs less and is super convenient. I drive about 70 miles a day. I plug in my Chevy Bolt about 2 times a week. It takes 7 seconds to plug it in and about 7 seconds to unplug it. So about 7 x 4 = 28 seconds a week (let’s just call it 30 seconds) is spent actively doing something related to charging up my vehicle. The rest of the time the car is charging is not my concern as I am doing other activities. Compare this to a gas car where you are pretty much a captive audience, standing at the gas pump for 3 minutes a week, (not counting travel time to and from the gas station). 
After a year, charging an EV at home takes 30 seconds x 52 weeks = 1560 seconds or 26 minutes of my time. 
Pumping gas each week for a year takes 3 minutes x 52 weeks = 156 minutes. 
The time saved not pumping gas and instead charging at home is over 2 hours a year. 

A typical charge rate at home is going to be 960-1440 watts from a 120V outlet or 3,600 to 7200 watts on a 240VAC outlet or L2 charging station. Tesla home charging stations can draw upwards of 9600 watts. 
The grid will actually benefit from lots of electric cars charging at night. 
The real risk I believe will come from too many homes charging up vehicles at once on the same distribution transformer. But this risk is actually really small. 
In modern residential neighborhoods 4-5 homes typically share a 50 kVA transformer. Six cars could charge up simultaneously without any issues, (6.6 kW x 6 = 39.6 kW and 7.2 kW x 6 = 43.2 kW) and there would still be margin to run the parasitic loads in each of the homes overnight too. 
With shared scheduling, every home could have up to 6 electric cars a piece (each driving a lot of daily miles) before you would run into problems. 

What about a smaller distribution transformer? 
Even a very small distribution transformer can suffice if charging is done on a schedule. Let’s assume a worst case 10kVA transformer feeding 2-3 residential homes and each home has 2 electric vehicles that needed charging, (worst case 6 EVs). You would only be able to charge 1 EV at a time but this is accomplished by setting the timer on each car as to when it can charge up. 
It takes about 10 kWh of energy to drive an EV for an average 30-40 mile daily commute. At 6,600 watts, it takes about 1.5-hours to charge up an EV’s driving for that day. 
So 6 cars each charging up every night would have to take turns when they charge up during the night. 

Car 1 would charge up from 9:30pm to 11:pm. 
Car 2: 11pm-12:30am. 
Car 3: 12:30am-2am. 
Car 4: 2am-3:30am. 
Car 5: 3:30am-5am. 
Car 6: 5am-6:30am. 

If the EV has a larger battery (like in a Tesla, or Chevy Bolt, etc.), you would not have to charge up every day and could just schedule a charge ever few days or even once a week and charge up for longer on your night. 

Car 1 (Next Gen Leaf) 11:pm to 5:am Sunday
Car 2: (Tesla) 11 pm-7 am Monday
Car 3: (Bolt) 11 pm-6 am. Tuesday
Car 4: (Tesla) 11 pm - 7 am Wednesday 
Car 5: (Tesla Pickup Truck) 9:30 pm to 6 am Thursday. 
Car 6: (Bolt) 10 pm to 7 am Friday. 
Bonus Car: (Guest Tesla visitor) 10 pm to 7 am Saturday. 
Even using this very pessimistic example, even a very tiny distribution transformer could handle the load as long as all the cars aren’t charging at the same time. 
Bring on the EVs.

Looking Forward: 
Back to the problems that next generation's ultra high power 1 million watt charging stations may cause. These stations will utilize large stationary battery storage. Instead of drawing many megawatts of power for minute long surges, they will sip steady state continuously and let the stationary battery handle the brief minutes long surges. 
This will also reduce demand charges, greatly reducing the operating costs associated with providing a charging station. 
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